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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 25 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
63%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 24 games
54%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
592 picks · 927 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 417 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 638 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
432 picks · 937 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 650 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 531 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
377 picks · 231 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:20
Team Spirit 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
46% · 85 games42% · 245 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
56% · 320 games51% · 231 game
Batriderpma
Batrider
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
46% · 166 games52% · 25 games
IoNiku
Io
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanto
60% · 46 games46% · 206 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanrue
53% · 265 games52% · 175 games
MarciZayac
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1