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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 24 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 22 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 20 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 17 games
47%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 30 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 963 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 624 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 996 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 471 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 510 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
420 picks · 261 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 551 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:35
Team Spirit 55%Natus Vincere 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterYatoro
59% · 236 games48% · 245 games
Windrangergotthejuice
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirele
48% · 173 games43% · 347 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsCollapse
51% · 294 games54% · 68 games
Largopma
Largo
Warlock
WarlockPanto
49% · 300 games46% · 159 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
48% · 175 games54% · 359 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct26:11
Team Spirit 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
56% · 78 games41% · 225 games
Windrangergotthejuice
Windranger
Puck
PuckMirele
55% · 359 games52% · 228 games
Primal Beastpma
Primal Beast
Mars
MarsCollapse
47% · 325 games51% · 451 game
TinyNiku
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockPanto
51% · 419 games44% · 164 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
54% · 258 games49% · 371 game
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2