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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
73%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 14 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 13 games
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 12 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugna
queezy · 12 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 354 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
366 picks · 593 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 549 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
353 picks · 281 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 337 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
334 picks · 693 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 194 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 333 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:38
Team Spirit 79%Nemiga Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:07:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
57% · 85 games47% · 66 games
Lunav1olent-
Luna
Lina
LinaLarl
54% · 60 games42% · 82 games
Windrangernicky`cool
Windranger
Tiny
TinyCollapse
58% · 208 games46% · 114 games
MarsMikSa`
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
46% · 24 games48% · 56 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
52% · 56 games45% · 115 games
Enchantressaik
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct31:13
Team Spirit 77%Nemiga Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYatoro
48% · 181 game52% · 141 game
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLarl
51% · 216 games48% · 277 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
48% · 244 games47% · 342 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickMira
44% · 522 games57% · 276 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
54% · 292 games52% · 419 games
Techiesaik
Techies
Game 3prediction correct28:6
Team Spirit 79%Nemiga Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
55% · 192 games49% · 134 games
Svenv1olent-
Sven
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
47% · 30 games53% · 286 games
DoomMikSa`
Doom
Tiny
TinyLarl
45% · 181 game51% · 26 games
Vipernicky`cool
Viper
Techies
TechiesMira
51% · 364 games51% · 332 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
44% · 174 games53% · 163 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 93%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3