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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
68%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 21 game
81%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
88%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 14 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 14 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
83%

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 13 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 8 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 8 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 998 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 214 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 636 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
370 picks · 358 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 187 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 209 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 371 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:29
Team Spirit 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreYatoro
53% · 49 games52% · 41 game
TerrorbladeiLTW
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 141 game45% · 298 games
PuckMiracle-
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
53% · 149 games55% · 186 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
49% · 185 games51% · 88 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
49% · 245 games47% · 156 games
LionKuroKy
Lion
Game 2prediction missed21:54
Team Spirit 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
48% · 17 games51% · 33 games
WindrangerMiracle-
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 183 games45% · 81 game
UrsaiLTW
Ursa
Viper
ViperCollapse
43% · 69 games46% · 160 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
60% · 45 games53% · 90 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
59% · 165 games51% · 115 games
LionKuroKy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2