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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 33 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 32 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 26 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 25 games
64%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 21 game
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 19 games
63%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 27 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 22 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
39%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
665 picks · 774 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 522 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 410 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
457 picks · 312 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1117 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
394 picks · 314 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 801 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 597 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:18
Team Spirit 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 56:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
54% · 235 games49% · 354 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLarl
45% · 338 games48% · 142 games
Muertarincyq
Muerta
Batrider
BatriderBatyuk
46% · 355 games48% · 173 games
TidehunterDavai
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
Grimstrokerue
63% · 43 games48% · 261 game
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickPanto
50% · 118 games55% · 159 games
BaneGH
Bane
Game 2prediction missed14:44
Team Spirit 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
55% · 237 games52% · 215 games
Bristlebackrincyq
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterBatyuk
52% · 230 games46% · 258 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
53% · 226 games46% · 172 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
51% · 323 games45% · 129 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Oracle
OraclePanto
51% · 73 games48% · 315 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed26:36
Team Spirit 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerLarl
51% · 110 games56% · 86 games
Muertarincyq
Muerta
Bristleback
BristlebackYatoro
47% · 245 games41% · 148 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBatyuk
60% · 35 gameslittle data
Legion CommanderDavai
Legion Commander
Rubick
RubickPanto
56% · 88 games49% · 57 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Lion
Lionrue
50% · 83 games48% · 270 games
TuskOmaR
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3