PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 18 games
Lion
Mira · 17 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 14 games
nouns
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 22 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 18 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 16 games
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 15 games
Phoenix
Fly · 15 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 213 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 621 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 737 bans
Rubick
392 picks · 158 bans
Centaur Warrunner
389 picks · 542 bans
Gyrocopter
379 picks · 319 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 729 bans
Mars
336 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
Team Spirit 57%nouns 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYatoro
GyrocopterYuma
KunkkaLarl
Death ProphetCopy
MagnusCollapse
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
BatriderMiposhka
Shadow DemonLelis
Dark WillowMira
Crystal MaidenFly
Game 2prediction correct32:15
Team Spirit 60%nouns 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverYatoro
LunaYuma
LinaLarl
Dragon KnightCopy
MarsCollapse
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Dark WillowMira
HoodwinkLelis
Shadow DemonMiposhka
PhoenixFly
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2