The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 27 games
Rubick
Mira · 24 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
nouns
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 33 games
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
Rubick
Lelis · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 23 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
412 picks · 376 bans
Hoodwink
384 picks · 426 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
Jakiro
347 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
332 picks · 725 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 638 bans
Phoenix
315 picks · 616 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 731 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:24
Team Spirit 71%nouns 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by nouns in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MiranaYatoro
LunaYuma
InvokerLarl
EarthshakerCopy
TinkerMira
Sand KingGunnar
KunkkaCollapse
SnapfireLelis
BatriderMiposhka
Treant ProtectorFly
Game 2prediction missed15:31
Team Spirit 69%nouns 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by nouns in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYatoro
LunaYuma
DoomCollapse
Sand KingCopy
BatriderLarl
MarsGunnar
TinkerMira
SnapfireLelis
RubickMiposhka
Treant ProtectorFly
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2