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The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 35 games
74%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 32 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
70%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 23 games
74%
Lion
Lionsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
61%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Topson · 14 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Saksa · 11 games
55%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 9 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Topson · 9 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
306 picks · 178 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
294 picks · 406 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
279 picks · 570 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 367 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 256 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
246 picks · 416 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
45%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
232 picks · 256 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:23
Team Spirit 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 171 game51% · 176 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
55% · 89 games47% · 209 games
Void SpiritTopson
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
45% · 66 games49% · 93 games
Dark SeerCeb
Dark Seer
Lion
LionMira
51% · 285 games55% · 70 games
Nature's Prophetn0tail
Nature's Prophet
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
51% · 92 games52% · 155 games
ClockwerkSaksa
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct37:11
Team Spirit 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
50% · 47 games51% · 180 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 199 games58% · 149 games
InvokerTopson
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
46% · 64 games51% · 89 games
Nature's Prophetn0tail
Nature's Prophet
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
48% · 78 games53% · 94 games
EarthshakerCeb
Earthshaker
Lion
LionMira
45% · 185 games49% · 61 game
Night StalkerSaksa
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2