Elite League · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Larl · 19 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
Lion
Mira · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 14 games
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
Marssignature
Wisper · 22 games
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 19 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 17 games
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 785 bans
Batrider
461 picks · 958 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 601 bans
Crystal Maiden
453 picks · 200 bans
Techies
450 picks · 346 bans
Mars
446 picks · 708 bans
Rubick
438 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
426 picks · 725 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:27
Team Spirit 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautYatoro
Naga SirenTimado
PangolierLarl
Invokerbzm
MagnusCollapse
MarsWisper
TinyMira
BatriderAri
OracleMiposhka
BaneCeb
Game 2prediction missed55:26
Team Spirit 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageYatoro
DoomWisper
RazorCollapse
MorphlingTimado
Earth SpiritLarl
Monkey Kingbzm
DisruptorMiposhka
BatriderAri
IoMira
BaneCeb
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 51%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2