PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
Batridersignature
rue · 24 games
Muerta
rue · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Lion
rue · 21 game
OG
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 16 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 15 games
Chenoften banned
xNova · 11 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 11 games
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
515 picks · 739 bans
Phoenix
497 picks · 799 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 478 bans
Muerta
447 picks · 379 bans
Batrider
443 picks · 536 bans
Magnus
437 picks · 1049 bans
Bristleback
412 picks · 947 bans
Pangolier
393 picks · 533 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total95% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Team Spirit 82%OG 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYatoro
Morphling23savage
Ember SpiritLarl
BrewmasterCeb
MarsCollapse
EarthshakerNine
Keeper of the Lightrue
LeshracDaze
PugnaMiposhka
Crystal MaidenxNova
Game 2prediction correct34:6
Team Spirit 81%OG 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsCollapse
Sven23savage
Dragon KnightLarl
Death ProphetNine
UrsaYatoro
Faceless VoidCeb
Muertarue
MiranaxNova
JakiroMiposhka
MarciDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 95%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2