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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Miposhka · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
78%

One Move

Bane
Banesignature
Panto · 33 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 31 game
81%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 28 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 26 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
85%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
498 picks · 431 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
456 picks · 684 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 535 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
407 picks · 289 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 591 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 569 bans
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 643 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 621 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:17
Team Spirit 58%One Move 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
57% · 66 games43% · 23 games
Alchemistmellojul
Alchemist
Lycan
LycanCollapse
64% · 49 games40% · 121 game
Chaos KnightSmiling Knight
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 244 games50% · 226 games
PangolierAfterLife
Pangolier
Viper
ViperMiposhka
52% · 97 games42% · 188 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickMira
60% · 123 games41% · 21 game
OraclePanto
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct29:13
Team Spirit 60%One Move 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
49% · 251 game49% · 216 games
LunaSmiling Knight
Luna
Kunkka
KunkkaTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 208 games48% · 296 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
57% · 170 games45% · 106 games
Night StalkerAfterLife
Night Stalker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
53% · 143 games47% · 201 game
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Mirana
MiranaMira
60% · 278 games45% · 231 game
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2