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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 49 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 20 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 18 games
61%

One Move

Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 18 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 11 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
707 picks · 604 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 499 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
472 picks · 1153 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
466 picks · 857 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
422 picks · 1067 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
401 picks · 859 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
397 picks · 567 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 216 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total90% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:18
Team Spirit 76%One Move 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
52% · 76 games46% · 194 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
53% · 174 games52% · 100 games
Void SpiritMunkushi~
Void Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
51% · 114 games33% · 29 games
BrewmasterAfterLife
Brewmaster
Pugna
PugnaMira
47% · 112 games55% · 110 games
TechiesPanto
Techies
Lich
LichMiposhka
50% · 103 games52% · 146 games
MiranaGilgir
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed20:41
Team Spirit 75%One Move 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by One Move in 55:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
52% · 48 games50% · 119 games
Queen of PainAinkrad
Queen of Pain
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
41% · 48 games50% · 99 games
TimbersawAfterLife
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderLarl
49% · 236 games54% · 84 games
SlarkMunkushi~
Slark
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMira
44% · 68 games63% · 42 games
VenomancerPanto
Venomancer
Lich
LichMiposhka
41% · 57 games57% · 113 games
TechiesGilgir
Techies
Game 3prediction correct22:9
Team Spirit 78%One Move 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYatoro
42% · 77 games49% · 115 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
54% · 170 games48% · 150 games
BatriderAfterLife
Batrider
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
55% · 272 games32% · 69 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Lich
LichMiposhka
54% · 90 games53% · 136 games
TechiesGilgir
Techies
Pugna
PugnaMira
54% · 85 games52% · 224 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 90%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3