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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
paiN Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 29 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 25 games
76%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 23 games
61%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

paiN Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 7 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Scofield · 6 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Frank · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
75%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 4 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
650 picks · 819 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 588 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 404 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
459 picks · 307 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1062 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 691 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 616 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
377 picks · 981 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
Team Spirit 79%paiN Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 57:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYatoro
53% · 379 games46% · 309 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Viper
ViperLarl
53% · 139 games49% · 324 games
Shadow FiendWits
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsCollapse
46% · 427 games48% · 299 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
48% · 790 games50% · 583 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
52% · 346 games54% · 566 games
RingmasterElmisho
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct41:16
Team Spirit 79%paiN Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
51% · 288 games55% · 84 games
LunaWits
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLarl
48% · 377 games53% · 229 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderCollapse
49% · 302 games48% · 110 games
ViperDarkMago
Viper
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanrue
54% · 388 games47% · 596 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPanto
50% · 333 games45% · 669 games
JakiroElmisho
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 93%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2