Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Lionsignature
Mira · 18 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 18 games
Magnussignature
Collapse · 17 games
Miranasignature
Mira · 16 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 15 games
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 14 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
324 picks · 470 bans
Bane
281 picks · 215 bans
Snapfire
274 picks · 152 bans
Weaver
263 picks · 572 bans
Tidehunter
261 picks · 395 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 705 bans
Ember Spirit
216 picks · 300 bans
Lion
213 picks · 99 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength62% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total87% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:15
Team Spirit 87%PuckChamp 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:20.
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Team Spirit 87%PuckChamp 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 87%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2