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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 57 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 26 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 26 games
65%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 22 games
68%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 33 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 23 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
669 picks · 455 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
643 picks · 682 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
575 picks · 1119 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
496 picks · 1225 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
494 picks · 1039 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
486 picks · 460 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 714 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
435 picks · 906 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:27
Team Spirit 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
49% · 127 games53% · 148 games
MedusaArteezy
Medusa
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
51% · 166 games53% · 409 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
46% · 291 game56% · 227 games
TimbersawAbed
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickMira
42% · 726 games50% · 341 game
TechiesCr1t-
Techies
Lich
LichMiposhka
47% · 209 games54% · 394 games
DisruptorFly
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Team Spirit 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
54% · 197 games56% · 191 game
MedusaArteezy
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
51% · 245 games49% · 187 games
Dragon KnightAbed
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
47% · 77 games53% · 176 games
VisageSabeRLight-
Visage
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMiposhka
45% · 142 games52% · 412 games
TechiesFly
Techies
Rubick
RubickMira
46% · 377 games43% · 72 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 54%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2