OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 18 games
Axesignature
Collapse · 17 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
388 picks · 168 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 127 bans
Dragon Knight
263 picks · 348 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 525 bans
Lina
252 picks · 409 bans
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 242 bans
Luna
247 picks · 332 bans
Puck
236 picks · 540 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 52%
Hero pool strength62% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:25
Team Spirit 69%T1 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by T1 in 38:45.
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Team Spirit 69%T1 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:21.
Game 3prediction missed40:35
Team Spirit 69%T1 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by T1 in 52:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 69%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3