OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 34 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 27 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 19 games
Axesignature
Collapse · 17 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
381 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 521 bans
Lina
259 picks · 429 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 344 bans
Luna
251 picks · 343 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 244 bans
Terrorblade
237 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 53%
Hero pool strength62% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:24
Team Spirit 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:59.
Game 2prediction correct31:9
Team Spirit 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2