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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 47 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 23 games
83%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 18 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
980 picks · 707 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
600 picks · 448 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 445 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
541 picks · 866 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 365 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
495 picks · 351 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
494 picks · 1076 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
488 picks · 1167 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 35%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:43
Team Spirit 59%Team Aster 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
48% · 98 games52% · 95 games
AlchemistMonet
Alchemist
Doom
DoomCollapse
52% · 137 games65% · 42 games
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
47% · 83 games36% · 6 games
AxeXxs
Axe
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
45% · 52 games48% · 153 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
52% · 136 games46% · 210 games
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed20:38
Team Spirit 59%Team Aster 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYatoro
41% · 43 games61% · 101 game
AlchemistMonet
Alchemist
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
48% · 69 games48% · 253 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
49% · 97 games43% · 32 games
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
45% · 237 games55% · 158 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickMira
48% · 338 games56% · 240 games
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2