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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 34 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 31 game
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 21 game
81%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 21 game
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 20 games
65%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 54 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 32 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 31 game
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 26 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
412 picks · 516 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 362 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 461 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
309 picks · 362 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
302 picks · 570 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
267 picks · 145 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 365 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
254 picks · 121 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total82% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:26
Team Spirit 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:18:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
49% · 241 game49% · 478 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyLarl
52% · 353 games50% · 342 games
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
54% · 355 games50% · 471 game
MarsATF
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMiposhka
47% · 280 games44% · 39 games
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
Ancient Apparition
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
54% · 259 games48% · 158 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct12:24
Team Spirit 31%Team Falcons 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
44% · 115 games50% · 344 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalik
53% · 216 games44% · 123 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
49% · 96 games50% · 145 games
Sand KingATF
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMiposhka
49% · 242 games60% · 129 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
53% · 206 games46% · 134 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Game 3prediction missed28:22
Team Spirit 31%Team Falcons 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSatanic
50% · 309 games54% · 122 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMalik
50% · 52 games43% · 249 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
55% · 194 games51% · 151 game
Sand KingATF
Sand King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinrue
51% · 83 games49% · 126 games
PugnaCr1t-
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
51% · 260 games47% · 250 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 82%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3