?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Falconswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 35 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 32 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 28 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 28 games
79%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yatoro · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 22 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
59%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 42 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 32 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 29 games
59%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
82%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 661 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
437 picks · 423 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
349 picks · 719 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
319 picks · 643 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
313 picks · 183 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 509 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
305 picks · 606 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
297 picks · 274 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head8 – 7
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:46
Team Spirit 58%Team Falcons 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
57% · 134 games50% · 278 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
47% · 85 games60% · 162 games
DoomATF
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
56% · 249 games49% · 181 game
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
45% · 382 games44% · 136 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Slark
Slarkrue
45% · 53 games43% · 146 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1