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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 3:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Team Falconsloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 30 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 24 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 20 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yatoro · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 48 games
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 38 games
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
59%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
499 picks · 535 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 452 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 361 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 515 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
342 picks · 191 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
339 picks · 721 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
309 picks · 453 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
305 picks · 581 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head6 – 9
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:15
Team Spirit 61%Team Falcons 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
57% · 188 games50% · 170 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Lycan
LycanCollapse
56% · 76 games50% · 333 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
40% · 178 games45% · 118 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Batrider
Batriderrue
53% · 387 games49% · 144 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
52% · 228 games49% · 292 games
Dark WillowCr1t-
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct25:9
Team Spirit 57%Team Falcons 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
50% · 204 games51% · 147 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
40% · 269 games52% · 174 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Mars
MarsCollapse
46% · 164 games54% · 228 games
DoomATF
Doom
Rubick
Rubickrue
51% · 159 games52% · 244 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
48% · 89 games57% · 92 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct48:13
Team Spirit 60%Team Falcons 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
42% · 89 games51% · 45 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCollapse
49% · 108 games53% · 164 games
SniperMalr1ne
Sniper
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
56% · 163 games46% · 110 games
RazorATF
Razor
Lion
Lionrue
46% · 97 games62% · 135 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiposhka
44% · 163 games51% · 166 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultTeam Spirit 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3