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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:3
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Falconswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 34 games
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 32 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 27 games
70%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
94%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 17 games
76%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 29 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Skiter · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
523 picks · 554 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
387 picks · 230 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 416 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 870 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 485 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 303 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 901 bans
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
291 picks · 645 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head7 – 9
Model total54% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:27
Team Spirit 52%Team Falcons 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
56% · 218 games32% · 19 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Doom
DoomCollapse
50% · 206 games57% · 253 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarMirele
51% · 76 games50% · 160 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMiposhka
49% · 105 games50% · 115 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Rubick
Rubickrue
41% · 73 games49% · 131 game
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed12:33
Team Spirit 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
55% · 160 games51% · 220 games
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierMirele
43% · 284 games48% · 347 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderCollapse
47% · 302 games51% · 208 games
MarsATF
Mars
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
50% · 109 games51% · 287 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Clockwerk
Clockwerkrue
47% · 272 games59% · 65 games
GrimstrokeCr1t-
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed12:35
Team Spirit 52%Team Falcons 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
53% · 273 games55% · 288 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
51% · 227 games50% · 217 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingMirele
57% · 236 games50% · 96 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Rubick
Rubickrue
44% · 89 games45% · 101 game
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
37% · 72 games55% · 195 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 54%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3