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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 17 games
65%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
71%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 33 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 21 game
76%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 18 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
679 picks · 328 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 590 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
450 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 1121 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 654 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 248 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
342 picks · 152 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
337 picks · 876 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 79%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 9
Model total63% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
Team Spirit 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLarl
56% · 224 games42% · 179 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
41% · 51 game48% · 260 games
AbaddonSkiter
Abaddon
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
53% · 257 games46% · 362 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Batrider
Batriderrue
50% · 307 games46% · 23 games
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Skywrath Mage
Bane
BanePanto
62% · 133 games54% · 148 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Game 2prediction missed35:11
Team Spirit 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
53% · 222 games52% · 175 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
51% · 164 games47% · 86 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
46% · 205 games48% · 425 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
51% · 165 games46% · 266 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Tusk
Tuskrue
54% · 377 games51% · 181 game
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct36:32
Team Spirit 42%Team Falcons 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:11:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
54% · 192 games47% · 310 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Venomancer
VenomancerLarl
53% · 31 game49% · 183 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
52% · 167 games45% · 205 games
MarsATF
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
54% · 220 games49% · 153 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
47% · 265 games52% · 24 games
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 63%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3