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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusk
rue · 32 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 31 game
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 24 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
61%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 33 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 26 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 593 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 407 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 402 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
437 picks · 473 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
418 picks · 200 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
411 picks · 260 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 1038 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 867 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 8
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:16
Team Spirit 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 54:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
47% · 156 games49% · 167 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
46% · 182 games50% · 34 games
Death ProphetMalr1ne
Death Prophet
Slardar
SlardarBatyuk
50% · 226 games48% · 36 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Techies
Techiesrue
47% · 26 games55% · 286 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanto
59% · 64 games48% · 131 game
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct12:38
Team Spirit 40%Team Falcons 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYatoro
52% · 215 games49% · 42 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
56% · 157 games50% · 110 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLarl
46% · 74 games53% · 221 game
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
47% · 144 games52% · 110 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Techies
Techiesrue
36% · 21 game48% · 128 games
SilencerSneyking
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct27:27
Team Spirit 40%Team Falcons 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
43% · 326 games56% · 302 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
49% · 185 games58% · 107 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
41% · 329 games55% · 228 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Techies
TechiesPanto
38% · 33 games60% · 158 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrue
44% · 284 games54% · 362 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3