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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Liquidloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 11 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Mira · 10 games
90%

Team Liquid

Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 16 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
46%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 11 games
36%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 628 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 289 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 489 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
397 picks · 528 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 554 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 546 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 504 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:7
Team Spirit 62%Team Liquid 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 117 games51% · 171 game
Keeper of the LightmiCKe
Keeper of the Light
Luna
LunaYatoro
47% · 140 games43% · 6 games
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
Lone Druid
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
54% · 205 games49% · 232 games
Dragon Knightzai
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranaMira
55% · 171 game44% · 312 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
55% · 126 games50% · 38 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1