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1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
76%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 18 games
61%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Miposhka · 12 games
67%

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 19 games
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 14 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 13 games
62%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 13 games
54%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
73%
Lion
Lion
Boxi · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 353 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 587 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 543 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
349 picks · 274 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 336 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
330 picks · 675 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
320 picks · 191 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
309 picks · 322 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:43
Team Spirit 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerLarl
52% · 195 games45% · 186 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
55% · 113 games45% · 82 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
52% · 244 games53% · 323 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesMira
50% · 318 games47% · 266 games
DoomBoxi
Doom
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
55% · 173 games46% · 186 games
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct60:47
Team Spirit 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:09:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
55% · 123 games44% · 86 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
60% · 49 games45% · 90 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
52% · 128 games44% · 105 games
Kunkka33
Kunkka
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
51% · 147 games52% · 228 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Tiny
TinyMira
52% · 173 games44% · 111 games
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction missed24:34
Team Spirit 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
52% · 270 games52% · 188 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Sven
SvenYatoro
51% · 127 games44% · 230 games
Dragon KnightNisha
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
48% · 214 games53% · 155 games
Spirit Breaker33
Spirit Breaker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
52% · 158 games53% · 243 games
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
Vengeful Spirit
Rubick
RubickMira
43% · 348 games54% · 301 game
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3