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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 26 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 21 game
81%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 20 games
60%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
52%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
52%
Luna
Luna
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 27 games
74%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
30%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 708 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
327 picks · 626 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
323 picks · 468 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 374 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
322 picks · 263 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
321 picks · 215 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
303 picks · 350 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 540 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 35%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:26
Team Spirit 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYatoro
43% · 88 games44% · 120 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
54% · 30 games41% · 121 game
RazormiCKe
Razor
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
57% · 144 games48% · 228 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Chen
ChenMiposhka
61% · 81 game48% · 144 games
MorphlingBoxi
Morphling
Rubick
RubickMira
51% · 439 games52% · 169 games
SveniNSaNiA
Sven
Game 2prediction missed16:38
Team Spirit 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
42% · 181 game47% · 174 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
60% · 26 games48% · 315 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
49% · 107 games58% · 179 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickMira
48% · 313 games50% · 76 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
49% · 202 games56% · 85 games
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2