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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muerta
rue · 32 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 27 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 21 game
67%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 32 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 29 games
79%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 792 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 676 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
429 picks · 785 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 873 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
399 picks · 381 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 530 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
383 picks · 1069 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:19
Team Spirit 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
50% · 189 games59% · 242 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLarl
46% · 95 games49% · 263 games
Puckbryle-
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
52% · 100 games54% · 185 games
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Sand King
Muerta
Muertarue
46% · 202 games55% · 63 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
42% · 218 games46% · 51 game
RingmasterBoxi
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed22:43
Team Spirit 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 47:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
46% · 104 games52% · 254 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Wraith King
Wraith KingYatoro
34% · 15 games52% · 119 games
Ember Spiritbryle-
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
51% · 191 game55% · 121 game
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
46% · 259 games58% · 31 game
TinkeriNSaNiA
Tinker
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
49% · 167 games50% · 211 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2