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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Liquidloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
94%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
77%

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 20 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
620 picks · 306 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
534 picks · 545 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 1111 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
375 picks · 196 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
357 picks · 606 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
350 picks · 159 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 266 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
Team Spirit 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
51% · 348 games53% · 269 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Huskar
HuskarLarl
51% · 71 game52% · 333 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierCollapse
44% · 445 games52% · 179 games
TimbersawAce
Timbersaw
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
47% · 255 games48% · 373 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Pugna
Pugnarue
54% · 297 games49% · 262 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1