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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 27 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 23 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
56%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 17 games
65%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 38 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 32 games
66%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ekki · 25 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boxi · 24 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
65%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
tOfu · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
509 picks · 305 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 576 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 353 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
409 picks · 311 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
367 picks · 200 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 315 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 848 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 846 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:37
Team Spirit 37%Team Liquid 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
47% · 136 games50% · 98 games
KezmiCKe
Kez
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
49% · 303 games53% · 436 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeCollapse
52% · 141 game53% · 236 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetrue
49% · 113 games43% · 68 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Rubick
Rubicknot me
52% · 169 games50% · 24 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct23:44
Team Spirit 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 52:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYatoro
62% · 18 games48% · 186 games
KezmiCKe
Kez
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
55% · 171 game43% · 432 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyLarl
48% · 365 games43% · 202 games
DoomAce
Doom
Batrider
Batridernot me
58% · 258 games38% · 120 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
55% · 344 games55% · 216 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed40:16
Team Spirit 37%Team Liquid 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
49% · 84 games47% · 218 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Huskar
HuskarLarl
59% · 101 game44% · 131 game
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCollapse
49% · 58 games46% · 147 games
MuertamiCKe
Muerta
Phoenix
Phoenixrue
52% · 329 games56% · 86 games
Treant ProtectortOfu
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
50% · 161 game48% · 151 game
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3