BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwink
not me · 32 games
Rubicksignature
not me · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
not me · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 20 games
Ringmastersignature
not me · 16 games
Drow Rangersignature
Yatoro · 14 games
Doomsignature
Collapse · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Team Nemesis
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 25 games
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 22 games
Clockwerk
Jhocam · 20 games
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 18 games
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
Techies
NARMAN · 13 games
Windranger
rubikon155 · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
499 picks · 299 bans
Dark Willow
398 picks · 167 bans
Mirana
377 picks · 170 bans
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 490 bans
Winter Wyvern
312 picks · 282 bans
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 307 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 489 bans
Undying
277 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:39
Team Spirit 73%Team Nemesis 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 48:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerBatyuk
TinyJaCkky
UrsaYatoro
TimbersawJabz
Ember SpiritLarl
LinaKen
Mirananot me
ClockwerkJhocam
Winter Wyvernrue
Dark WillowNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct55:27
Team Spirit 73%Team Nemesis 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerBatyuk
TinyJaCkky
KezYatoro
Storm SpiritKen
PangolierLarl
Nature's ProphetJabz
Hoodwinkrue
ClockwerkJhocam
Banenot me
Dark WillowNARMAN
Game 3prediction correct53:18
Team Spirit 73%Team Nemesis 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageYatoro
TimbersawJabz
DoomBatyuk
WindrangerJaCkky
Sand KingLarl
LinaKen
Hoodwinknot me
Dark WillowJhocam
Winter Wyvernrue
TechiesNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 88%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3