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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 14 games
86%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 12 games
83%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 11 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
91%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yatoro · 8 games
75%

Team Secret

Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
yamich · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 9 games
78%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
MidOne · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 321 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 479 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
273 picks · 388 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
260 picks · 176 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
258 picks · 351 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
257 picks · 143 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 472 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:46
Team Spirit 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Secret in 52:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
48% · 38 games52% · 47 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
62% · 54 games43% · 94 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Viper
ViperCollapse
43% · 20 games47% · 128 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Tiny
TinyMira
57% · 148 games46% · 80 games
Skywrath MagePuppey
Skywrath Mage
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
48% · 89 games
Game 2prediction correct32:5
Team Spirit 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 23:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLarl
62% · 116 games45% · 55 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Windranger
WindrangerYatoro
51% · 93 games49% · 66 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
46% · 117 games48% · 251 game
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Mirana
MiranaMira
55% · 150 games47% · 141 game
TuskEkki
Tusk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
46% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2