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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 26 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 24 games
58%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
69%

Team SMG

Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 7 games
29%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 7 games
29%
Techies
Techies
AhFu · 7 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
MidOne · 6 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
AhFu · 6 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
192 picks · 395 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
188 picks · 258 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
173 picks · 251 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
170 picks · 356 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
169 picks · 309 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
164 picks · 98 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 75%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
Team Spirit 75%Team SMG 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYatoro
45% · 93 games57% · 41 game
GyrocopterMidOne
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCollapse
51% · 58 games60% · 179 games
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
Beastmaster
Riki
RikiLarl
50% · 60 games46% · 58 games
InvokerNo[o]ne
Invoker
Muerta
MuertaMira
50% · 18 games42% · 87 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
45% · 163 games62% · 27 games
Elder TitanAhFu
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct37:29
Team Spirit 75%Team SMG 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYatoro
47% · 26 games49% · 164 games
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
53% · 54 games47% · 49 games
Faceless VoidMidOne
Faceless Void
Invoker
InvokerLarl
51% · 83 games51% · 63 games
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
Earth Spirit
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
47% · 206 games55% · 87 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Muerta
MuertaMira
44% · 8 games50% · 14 games
Elder TitanAhFu
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 90%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2