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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 20 games
65%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
79%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
92%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 13 games
62%

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 13 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 12 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Malady · 10 games
60%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
653 picks · 320 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
559 picks · 570 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
411 picks · 216 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 1153 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 631 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 266 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 398 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 159 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Team Spirit 64%Team Yandex 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
46% · 209 games55% · 256 games
Templar AssassinWatson
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
52% · 247 games52% · 403 games
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsCollapse
46% · 232 games54% · 227 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrue
48% · 318 games53% · 122 games
Void SpiritSaksa
Void Spirit
Tusk
TuskPanto
47% · 388 games47% · 386 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct42:7
Team Spirit 65%Team Yandex 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
53% · 186 games43% · 66 games
Troll WarlordWatson
Troll Warlord
Primal Beast
Primal BeastLarl
47% · 145 games51% · 181 game
MorphlingChira JUNIOR
Morphling
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCollapse
58% · 82 games44% · 347 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Tusk
Tuskrue
51% · 330 games50% · 62 games
SlarkSaksa
Slark
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePanto
56% · 50 games50% · 137 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2