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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 10 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
89%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
DuBu · 9 games
78%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
88%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
463 picks · 626 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 284 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
431 picks · 486 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
395 picks · 524 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
358 picks · 782 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 545 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 529 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 496 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Team Spirit 51%TSM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by TSM in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
49% · 128 games42% · 84 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Viper
ViperTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 84 games58% · 156 games
Death ProphetQuinn
Death Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCollapse
49% · 199 games52% · 23 games
Underlordbryle-
Underlord
Techies
TechiesMira
50% · 23 games41% · 126 games
IoMoonMeander
Io
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
58% · 81 game52% · 126 games
EnchantressDuBu
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct23:10
Team Spirit 51%TSM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
50% · 192 games60% · 33 games
Huskarbryle-
Huskar
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCollapse
46% · 75 games52% · 53 games
NecrophosTimado
Necrophos
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 243 games53% · 307 games
Storm SpiritQuinn
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMira
41% · 133 games49% · 185 games
Monkey KingMoonMeander
Monkey King
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
51% · 105 games56% · 170 games
AbaddonDuBu
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2