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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TSMwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 11 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 11 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
80%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 630 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 290 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 489 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
398 picks · 528 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 554 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 547 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 505 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:42
Team Spirit 62%TSM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by TSM in 55:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
58% · 46 games46% · 175 games
Leshracbryle-
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 222 games47% · 217 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCollapse
49% · 101 game50% · 130 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
53% · 208 games52% · 291 game
IoMoonMeander
Io
Bane
BaneMiposhka
59% · 342 games43% · 106 games
PugnaDuBu
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 71%
Series resultTSM 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1