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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
83%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 13 games
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 11 games
73%

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 19 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 14 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 400 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
462 picks · 713 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
306 picks · 473 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
295 picks · 499 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
291 picks · 702 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 397 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
261 picks · 841 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
259 picks · 136 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 24%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:35
Team Spirit 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 113 games46% · 65 games
Doom33
Doom
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
52% · 40 games53% · 37 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Axe
AxeCollapse
38% · 4 games42% · 81 game
TuskNine
Tusk
Marci
MarciMira
53% · 134 games55% · 99 games
MiranaSaksa
Mirana
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
59% · 55 games48% · 64 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed16:35
Team Spirit 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 315 games60% · 62 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
44% · 113 games44% · 187 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsCollapse
45% · 221 game49% · 206 games
TuskNine
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroMira
51% · 57 games53% · 70 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
52% · 141 game51% · 322 games
MarciSaksa
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2