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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 18 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 16 games
81%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
92%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
78%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 15 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 14 games
86%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 14 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
733 picks · 464 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
611 picks · 554 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
574 picks · 458 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
516 picks · 574 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 233 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 388 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
377 picks · 554 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
372 picks · 581 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total51% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:13
Team Spirit 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCollapse
50% · 178 games47% · 203 games
DoomNine
Doom
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
43% · 81 game55% · 176 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
45% · 300 games50% · 70 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickMira
47% · 277 games56% · 207 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMiposhka
53% · 72 games55% · 252 games
UndyingSneyking
Undying
Game 2prediction correct29:11
Team Spirit 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperYatoro
49% · 83 games47% · 65 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
54% · 324 games53% · 248 games
Batrider33
Batrider
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
54% · 244 games48% · 466 games
TuskNine
Tusk
Rubick
RubickMira
48% · 437 games46% · 450 games
SnapfireSaksa
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
51% · 291 game50% · 150 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 51%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2