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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 31 game
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
82%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 26 games
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 17 games
76%

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 30 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 28 games
68%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 25 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 22 games
82%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 21 game
76%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
391 picks · 506 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
373 picks · 354 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 463 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
305 picks · 362 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 594 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
260 picks · 127 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
259 picks · 259 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
257 picks · 144 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:23
Team Spirit 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
45% · 224 games54% · 272 games
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Puck
PuckLarl
45% · 227 games59% · 160 games
Monkey KingLorenof
Monkey King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
47% · 315 games49% · 300 games
Doom33
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMiposhka
41% · 296 games62% · 156 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Tusk
Tuskrue
45% · 224 games55% · 398 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed34:20
Team Spirit 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSatanic
47% · 357 games46% · 356 games
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
47% · 157 games54% · 153 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierMalik
47% · 440 games54% · 352 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
52% · 351 game53% · 340 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
45% · 290 games54% · 394 games
ClockwerkSaksa
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed33:18
Team Spirit 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSatanic
46% · 252 games52% · 227 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Tiny
TinyLarl
47% · 254 games57% · 248 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
52% · 183 games51% · 61 game
Visage33
Visage
Muerta
Muertarue
48% · 98 games47% · 346 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
44% · 164 games57% · 69 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3