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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 48 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 27 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Shergarat · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 10 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Shergarat · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
728 picks · 610 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1061 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
425 picks · 709 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 1009 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 372 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
385 picks · 608 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 204 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 69%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:48
Team Spirit 76%UALEIKUMNIHAO 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
56% · 127 games46% · 103 games
BloodseekerPalantimos
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
40% · 133 games54% · 190 games
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
48% · 265 games50% · 322 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderMira
56% · 180 games49% · 47 games
Bounty Hunterb1kA
Bounty Hunter
Lich
LichMiposhka
45% · 62 games53% · 105 games
TechiesMary_y
Techies
Game 2prediction correct34:18
Team Spirit 76%UALEIKUMNIHAO 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
44% · 61 game51% · 35 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
51% · 66 games49% · 54 games
BloodseekerPalantimos
Bloodseeker
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCollapse
43% · 41 game59% · 68 games
VisageShergarat
Visage
Venomancer
VenomancerMiposhka
61% · 40 games52% · 106 games
Undyingb1kA
Undying
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
39% · 114 games57% · 59 games
TechiesMary_y
Techies
Game 3prediction correct30:31
Team Spirit 76%UALEIKUMNIHAO 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 53:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
41% · 160 games60% · 64 games
LifestealerPalantimos
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
42% · 279 games58% · 187 games
PuckChira JUNIOR
Puck
Axe
AxeCollapse
37% · 16 games54% · 155 games
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
43% · 132 games57% · 47 games
MedusaMary_y
Medusa
Techies
TechiesMira
48% · 61 game56% · 195 games
Treant Protectorb1kA
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 92%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3