PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tusksignature
rue · 28 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Ringmaster
rue · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
Vici Gaming
Jakirooften banned
y` · 16 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 10 games
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 10 games
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
601 picks · 883 bans
Tiny
493 picks · 524 bans
Tusk
461 picks · 416 bans
Warlock
438 picks · 300 bans
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1043 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 668 bans
Mars
384 picks · 579 bans
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Team Spirit 65%Vici Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendYatoro
Svenshiro
PangolierCollapse
SniperXm
TinyLarl
MarsFaith_bian
Naga SirenPanto
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
Hoodwinkrue
Phoenixy`
Game 2prediction correct37:25
Team Spirit 65%Vici Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 54:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendYatoro
Dragon Knightshiro
PuckLarl
MarsFaith_bian
SlardarCollapse
Ember SpiritXm
HoodwinkPanto
Warlocky`
Tinyrue
RingmasterpLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2