?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 27 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 23 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
56%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 17 games
65%

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 18 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xm · 16 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 11 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Muerta
Muertasignature
shiro · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
503 picks · 299 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 570 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 344 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
417 picks · 315 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 317 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
356 picks · 194 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 839 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 842 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:18
Team Spirit 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
41% · 337 games49% · 145 games
BristlebackFaith_bian
Bristleback
Alchemist
AlchemistYatoro
51% · 110 games63% · 83 games
Kezshiro
Kez
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
46% · 190 games55% · 194 games
BeastmasterXm
Beastmaster
Grimstroke
Grimstrokerue
45% · 79 games53% · 315 games
HoodwinkXinQ
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
46% · 184 games53% · 163 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct26:39
Team Spirit 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 58:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYatoro
59% · 89 games51% · 135 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
50% · 329 games47% · 153 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCollapse
50% · 28 games52% · 317 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantressrue
45% · 161 game49% · 130 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
50% · 397 games47% · 269 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 54%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2