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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 18 games
89%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 16 games
81%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Razor
Razorsignature
Collapse · 11 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 11 games
73%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
yamich · 20 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 14 games
86%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 13 games
62%
Lina
Linasignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Xakoda · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 376 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 348 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
318 picks · 225 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
276 picks · 280 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 148 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
202 picks · 109 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
199 picks · 255 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 513 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
Team Spirit 68%Virtus.pro 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
55% · 126 games47% · 168 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
52% · 234 games46% · 48 games
Troll Warlordkrylat
Troll Warlord
Axe
AxeCollapse
51% · 24 games53% · 38 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
41% · 159 games48% · 186 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 185 games57% · 288 games
MiranaDukalis
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct31:28
Team Spirit 67%Virtus.pro 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYatoro
54% · 182 games49% · 151 game
Nature's Prophetkrylat
Nature's Prophet
Doom
DoomCollapse
46% · 153 games51% · 351 game
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyLarl
47% · 519 games48% · 81 game
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
54% · 282 games45% · 264 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Riki
RikiMiposhka
65% · 37 games48% · 326 games
ClockwerkDukalis
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2