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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 16 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 15 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 14 games
43%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 20 games
80%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
72%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 15 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
62%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
470 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 828 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 594 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 661 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
415 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 713 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 617 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
379 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total59% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:35
Team Spirit 44%Xtreme Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:03:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
49% · 231 game53% · 103 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Windranger
WindrangerLarl
49% · 194 games51% · 215 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCollapse
50% · 184 games46% · 154 games
RazorXm
Razor
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
56% · 157 games50% · 221 game
TinyXinQ
Tiny
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
51% · 170 games47% · 243 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed34:20
Team Spirit 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:12:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYatoro
55% · 18 games50% · 136 games
LunaAme
Luna
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
45% · 84 games49% · 108 games
RazorXm
Razor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLarl
53% · 112 games51% · 142 games
KunkkaXxs
Kunkka
Mars
MarsCollapse
50% · 181 game42% · 99 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
53% · 154 games54% · 64 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2