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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 23 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
74%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
63%

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 19 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 18 games
78%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshrac
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
618 picks · 956 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 421 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 630 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 969 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 530 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
414 picks · 253 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 463 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 530 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:25
Team Spirit 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
45% · 456 games54% · 489 games
Dragon KnightAme
Dragon Knight
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirele
43% · 210 games52% · 278 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
50% · 519 games57% · 347 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
47% · 439 games53% · 314 games
RingmasterxNova
Ringmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
45% · 161 game54% · 357 games
Shadow Demonfy
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed15:31
Team Spirit 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
48% · 370 games49% · 22 games
Drow RangerAme
Drow Ranger
Largo
LargoCollapse
59% · 51 game45% · 187 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Viper
ViperMirele
53% · 103 games49% · 329 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinrue
58% · 87 games45% · 143 games
ChenxNova
Chen
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
48% · 316 games50% · 246 games
Windrangerfy
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2