BLAST Slam VII. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Stelsloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Stels
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Rubick
ArrOw · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 1 game
Snapfire
ArrOw · 1 game
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 21 game
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Sand King
mellojul · 20 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 16 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 16 games
Ursasignature
7jesu · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
677 picks · 844 bans
Tiny
572 picks · 582 bans
Tusk
501 picks · 429 bans
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1140 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 688 bans
Mars
396 picks · 621 bans
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1028 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:49
Team Stels 29%Team Lynx 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 49:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RingmasterArrOw
Ursa7jesu
53% · 73 games
Sand Kingmellojul
57% · 54 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
53% · 70 games
Phoenixkreker
45% · 85 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Game 2prediction correct19:30
Team Stels 30%Team Lynx 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 40:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PhoenixArrOw
Muerta7jesu
54% · 59 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
40% · 31 game
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
59% · 33 games
Treant Protectorkreker
50% · 56 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 84%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2