Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
team surpluswin 1:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Comebackloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
team surplus
No games played over 6 months.
Comeback
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 275 bans
Marci
291 picks · 536 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 231 bans
Undying
264 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 475 bans
Primal Beast
227 picks · 529 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 313 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% team surplus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Comeback
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:20
team surplus 36%Comeback 64%
The model gave 64% on Comeback — the game was taken by team surplus in 51:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteComeback · 64%
Series resultteam surplus 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1