Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
team surplusloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hot Headed Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
team surplus
No games played over 6 months.
Hot Headed Gaming
Enigmaoften banned
MikSa` · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Visageoften banned
MikSa` · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
358 picks · 331 bans
Tusk
306 picks · 291 bans
Marci
274 picks · 518 bans
Undying
252 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 550 bans
Primal Beast
230 picks · 591 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 337 bans
Snapfire
213 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% team surplus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Hot Headed Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:49
team surplus 40%Hot Headed Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Hot Headed Gaming — the game was taken by Hot Headed Gaming in 41:55.
Game 2prediction correct48:44
team surplus 40%Hot Headed Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Hot Headed Gaming — the game was taken by Hot Headed Gaming in 50:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteHot Headed Gaming · 60%
Series resultHot Headed Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2