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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 12 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 10 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
emptiness · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
71%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
emptiness · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 4 games
25%

PuckChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 17 games
18%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
8%
Techies
Techies
Gothic- · 12 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
спортик · 11 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 11 games
18%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
462 picks · 281 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 459 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
300 picks · 122 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
297 picks · 128 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
288 picks · 268 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
275 picks · 290 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 407 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
274 picks · 397 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 28%
Hero pool strength61% Team Synapse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Synapse 82%PuckChamp 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Synapse 82%PuckChamp 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 82%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2