European Pro League Season 40 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 3:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Yellow Submarineloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Synapse
Dark Willowsignature
Jeezy · 19 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 13 games
Mirana
emptiness · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
bengan · 8 games
Baneoften banned
bengan · 7 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 7 games
Dazzlesignature
bengan · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
Yellow Submarine
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 29 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 18 games
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 16 games
Pangolier
Rain · 16 games
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 294 bans
Dark Willow
379 picks · 168 bans
Mirana
369 picks · 162 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 489 bans
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 307 bans
Winter Wyvern
298 picks · 279 bans
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 481 bans
Undying
270 picks · 366 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:35
Team Synapse 42%Yellow Submarine 58%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTA2000
LifestealerShigetsu
Largoemptiness
Lycanmangekyou
Dark WillowJeezy
EarthshakerRain
Undyingbengan
Techiesprblms
55% · 167 games
BaneXakoda
Game 2prediction correct41:38
Team Synapse 41%Yellow Submarine 59%
The model gave 59% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 51:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyTA2000
Lone DruidShigetsu
Lycanemptiness
Enigmamangekyou
Miranabengan
InvokerRain
Dark WillowJeezy
Spirit Breakerprblms
57% · 75 games
LichXakoda
Game 3prediction missed46:12
Team Synapse 44%Yellow Submarine 56%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezTA2000
SniperRain
Undyingemptiness
TinyShigetsu
Dazzlebengan
Doommangekyou
TechiesJeezy
Witch DoctorXakoda
52% · 409 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Game 4prediction missed47:52
Team Synapse 42%Yellow Submarine 58%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 1:07:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezTA2000
ClinkzShigetsu
Largoemptiness
Lycanmangekyou
Witch Doctorbengan
Sand KingRain
TechiesJeezy
Hoodwinkprblms
45% · 94 games
LichXakoda
Game 5prediction missed43:21
Team Synapse 40%Yellow Submarine 60%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 51:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidTA2000
Nature's ProphetShigetsu
Earthshakeremptiness
LinaRain
Dark WillowJeezy
Dark Seermangekyou
Disruptorbengan
Hoodwinkprblms
44% · 150 games
ClockwerkXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 63%
Series resultTeam Synapse 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5